- by david spiegelhalter
- uncertainty as a subjective thing, aleatory, epistemic, uncertainty
should be described in number, brier score, fox better than hog,
independent probability, sum, multiplication, conditional probability,
combination, permutation, probability distribution
- binomial distribution when things have only two outcomes, poisson
distribution when something happens in average in given time window
independently, geometric distribution when something can be done exactly
a few times, monte carlo simulation, psuedo random, bayes
- significance test, concensus
- generalized pareto distribution when giving extreme events fat tail